Revenue Variance — Leakage Control
Unilever / Program Management
Last refreshed · 07 Aug 11:59 IST / 07:29 BST
Aug-2026 Baseline
$708,951
frozen 03 Aug snapshot
Aug-2026 Live
$708,951
Cortex Inputs, today
Leakage-to-Date
$0
$0live − baseline
Recognized-to-Date
$708,951Auto-posted
RevIQ pull 07 Aug
Aug-2026 Committed Floor
$613,856
−$95,095slip-risk haircut vs plan
On Track
Aug-2026 is holding its 1st-of-month statement — live forecast within $0 of the baseline.
Notable
Recognized-to-date equals forecast on every active engagement — treat $708,951 as forecast-posted, not delivery-verified.
On Track
Finance lock is holding — nothing before Jul-2026 moved between the last two RevIQ pulls.
Leakage Historyfinal leakage per closed month (baseline → close) · baseline 20260803 - Unilever.xlsx
Jun-2026 · closed−$277,042final leakage
Jul-2026 · closed−$214,192final leakage
Aug-2026 · live$0leakage-to-date
Aug-2026 — Baseline vs Live vs Recognized
Baseline = 20260803 - Unilever.xlsx (frozen 1st-of-month statement) · live = Unilever.xlsx Cortex Inputs · recognized = RevIQ 07 Aug pull · USD at FY-aware rates
| Engagement | Baseline (03 Aug) | Live | Leakage | Recognized | Intel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Always on MMM Build | $264,042 | $264,042 | $0 | $0 † | — |
UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India | $145,385 | $145,385 | $0 | $145,385 | — |
Product Optimizer Enhancements | $84,000 | $84,000 | $0 | $84,000 | — |
Rapid ROI GenAI | $70,000 | $70,000 | $0 | $70,000 | — |
Rapid ROI TikTok Funded Cells | $69,668 | $69,668 | $0 | $69,668 | — |
UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - Brazil | $42,255 | $42,255 | $0 | $0 | — |
MMM Product | $33,600 | $33,600 | $0 | $33,600 | — |
MMM Home Imporvement NL | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
RapidROI Home Care IT | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
UL - Rapid RoI - Germany | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
Rapid ROI Partner Funded Google | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
Rapid ROI Partner Cells Pinterest | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
RapidROI Home Care FR | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
RapidROI Home Care UK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
Always on MMM Support | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 † | — |
UL - GPA - Onsite Support | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
India Onsite Support | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
Q2 FY27 (Jul-Sep 26) - what is realcommitted basis = the raw RevIQ pull
20260701 - RevIQ_Service_Line_Report_Partner_2026-04_2027-03.xlsx, which is what Finance still sees; the month scoreboard above baselines off the master snapshot instead, which is why the two July figures differ| Basis | Jul-2026 | Aug-2026 | Sep-2026 | Quarter | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed (1 Jul RevIQ - Finance's view) | $615,693 | $703,776 | $714,240 | $2,033,709 | not refreshed since 1 Jul |
| Current forecast (live master) | $397,757 | $708,951 | $738,768 | $1,845,476 | |
| Current vs committed | −$217,936 | +$5,175 | +$24,528 | −$188,233 | |
| Delivery-timed (de-risked) | $491,212 | $908,648 | $908,836 | $2,308,695 | revenue phased to when the work happens |
| Delivery-timed vs current | +$93,455 | +$199,697 | +$170,068 | +$463,220 | work done in the quarter but recognised earlier |
Real, but not in any forecasteach sourced, none of it assumed
| Item | Jul-2026 | Aug-2026 | Sep-2026 | Quarter | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India onsite support ($8K/mo from Aug) | - | $8,000 | $8,000 | $16,000 | no revenue line set up yet |
| India 16 cells (1-Sep start, 8wk build) | - | - | $280,248 | $280,248 | $523K of build value already on the cell list but undated, so it phases to zero; $242.9K of it spills into Oct |
| Current forecast + all of the above | $397,757 | $716,951 | $1,027,016 | $2,141,724 |
Read-across. Committed $2,033,709 · current $1,845,476 · with the three items above $2,141,724 · delivery-timed $2,308,695. The quarter turns on whether India's 16 cells start on 1 Sep: with them $2,141,724, without them roughly $1,861,476. GPA onsite support ($25K/mo Oct-Dec) was added to the forecast on 2026-07-29, so it is no longer an unbooked item.
Aug-2026 — Baseline → Live bridge (cell level)
20260803 - Unilever.xlsx → live master · causes classified date-diff-first, story-assisted · UNCLASSIFIED is surfaced honestly, never guessed
No cell-level revenue moved in this window — the statement is holding.
Jul-2026 — how the closed month leaked
20260701 - Unilever.xlsx → 20260803 - Unilever.xlsx · final leakage −$214,192
| Cell | Baseline | Live | Δ | Cause | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC-CN-Skin-Cleansing-Lux Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | $16,842 | $0 | −$16,842 | REWORK SIGN-OFF CHASED - Sohini re-attached the Lux Media Model data summary asking for Victoria's sign-off so media modelling can proceed; flagged — cortex build start: 07 Jul → 17 Aug; cortex build end: 01 Sep → 12 Oct; cortex support start: 01 Nov → 01 Dec; build start (actuals): 07 Jul → 17 Aug; target completion (actuals): 01 Sep → 12 Oct | PC-CN-Lux (Personal Care, China, Skin Cleansing) is in late preparation: design is Signed Off, EDA & ADS prep is In Progress, and the build window on the master now reads 17-Aug start / 14-Sep readout (2026-08-06; 6 open items) |
PC-GB-Deodorants-Fragrances-Dove-Men Always on MMM Build · In Build | $16,842 | $0 | −$16,842 | START SLIP cortex build start: 07 Jul → 19 Aug; cortex build end: 01 Sep → 14 Oct; cortex support start: 01 Nov → 01 Dec; build start (actuals): 07 Jul → 19 Aug; target completion (actuals): 01 Sep → 14 Oct | PC-GB Dove Men (Dove Men+Care deos, UK, Tier 3 Build, ADLS) crossed the Preparation gate on 27-Jul: media + sales were signed off and model designs approved, so the cell moved to In Build with data si (2026-07-27; 5 open items) |
BW-GB-Hair-Care-TRESemmé Always on MMM Build · In Build | $12,800 | $0 | −$12,800 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Jul → 03 Aug; cortex build end: 07 Sep → 28 Sep; build start (actuals): 13 Jul → 03 Aug; target completion (actuals): 07 Sep → 28 Sep | BW-GB-TRESemmé Hair Care (UK Beauty & Wellbeing, Wave 2, Tier 3 Build) is In Build and, as of 27-Jul, cleared to model: media and sales are signed off, model design is approved (design Signed Off), da (2026-07-27; 1 open items) |
BW-GB-Skin-Care-Simple Always on MMM Build · In Build | $12,800 | $0 | −$12,800 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Jul → 10 Aug; cortex build end: 07 Sep → 05 Oct; cortex support start: 01 Nov → 01 Dec; build start (actuals): 13 Jul → 03 Aug; target completion (actuals): 07 Sep → 28 Sep | BW-GB-Simple Face Care (UK Beauty & Wellbeing, Wave 2, Tier 3 Build) is In Build with a clean run into modelling: media and sales signed off, model design approved, data sign-off complete, and ADS cre (2026-07-30; 3 open items) |
BW-GB-Skin-Care-Vaseline Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | $12,800 | $0 | −$12,800 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Jul → 28 Sep; cortex build end: 07 Sep → 23 Nov; cortex support start: 01 Nov → 01 Jan; build start (actuals): 13 Jul → 17 Aug; target completion (actuals): 07 Sep → 12 Oct | BW-GB-Vaseline (Beauty & Wellbeing, UK, Skin Care) cleared its data gate on 28-Jul after a round-tripped sign-off. The model is a 4-cut design (Face / Hand&Body x Core / Gluta-Hya) built to isolate th (2026-07-28; 3 open items) |
PC-GB-Deodorants-Fragrances-Dove Always on MMM Build · In Build | $12,800 | $0 | −$12,800 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Jul → 03 Aug; cortex build end: 07 Sep → 28 Sep; build start (actuals): 13 Jul → 03 Aug; target completion (actuals): 07 Sep → 28 Sep | PC-GB Dove Deodorants (UK PC Wave 2, Tier 3 Build, ADLS) crossed the Preparation gate on 27-Jul: media signed off (traditional + retail/ecomm now Validated), sales approved by Nick Murton-Jones, and M (2026-07-27; 5 open items) |
PC-GB-Skin-Cleansing-Dove Always on MMM Build · In Build | $12,800 | $0 | −$12,800 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Jul → 04 Aug; cortex build end: 07 Sep → 29 Sep; build start (actuals): 13 Jul → 04 Aug; target completion (actuals): 07 Sep → 29 Sep | PC-GB-Skin-Cleansing-Dove (Personal Care, UK, Skin Cleansing, Wave 2) crossed the Preparation gate on 27-Jul: media + sales were signed off and MMX & PnP model designs approved, so the cell moved to I (2026-07-27; 3 open items) |
BW-ID-Hair-Care-Clear Rapid ROI TikTok Funded Cells · In Preparation | $10,442 | $0 | −$10,442 | START SLIP cortex build start: 16 Jul → 17 Aug; cortex build end: 10 Sep → 12 Oct; cortex support start: 01 Nov → 01 Dec; build start (actuals): 16 Jul → 11 Aug; target completion (actuals): 10 Sep → 06 Oct | BW-ID-Clear (Beauty & Wellbeing, Indonesia, Hair Care - build funded by TikTok) is In Preparation with design Done (17-Jun) and data collection still short of sign-off. The 17-Jun design-discussion ca (2026-07-15; 3 open items) |
BW-GB-Hair-Care-Dove Always on MMM Build · In Build | $8,800 | $0 | −$8,800 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Jul → 03 Aug; cortex build end: 07 Sep → 28 Sep; build start (actuals): 13 Jul → 03 Aug; target completion (actuals): 07 Sep → 28 Sep | BW-GB-Dove Hair Care (UK Beauty & Wellbeing, Wave 2, Tier 2 Build) is In Build and, as of 27-Jul, cleared to model: media and sales are signed off, model design is approved (design Signed Off), data s (2026-07-27; 2 open items) |
BW-BR-Hair-Care-Dove UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - Brazil · In Build | $6,737 | $0 | −$6,737 | START SLIP cortex build start: 22 Jul → 03 Aug; cortex build end: 16 Sep → 28 Sep; build start (actuals): 22 Jul → 03 Aug; target completion (actuals): 16 Sep → 28 Sep | BW-BR-Dove (Hair Care, Brazil) is finally in motion: modelling started, confirmed by Tanima Paul on 04-Aug with a first readout anticipated around the week of 12-Sep, and modeling_mmm moved to In Prog (2026-08-04; 3 open items) |
FOOD-BR-Condiments-Hellmann's Always on MMM Build · In Build | $6,737 | $0 | −$6,737 | REWORK Bruna asked for a rework before digital sign-off: UL removed the 'squeeze all' tag and redistributed those campaigns across the portfolio ta — cortex build start: 22 Jul → 17 Aug; cortex build end: 16 Sep → 12 Oct; cortex support start: 01 Nov → 01 Dec; build start (actuals): 22 Jul → 17 Aug; target completion (actuals): 16 Sep → 12 Oct | FOOD-BR-Hellmann's (Condiments, Brazil) is a Tier-3 build that cleared its data gate on 29-Jul. Sales (sell-out / Market Track) was signed off 17-Jun by Bruna Olmos after a week-summing reconciliation (2026-07-29; 2 open items) |
PC-BR-Deodorants-Fragrances-Rexona UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - Brazil · In Build | $6,737 | $0 | −$6,737 | START SLIP cortex build start: 22 Jul → 03 Aug; cortex build end: 16 Sep → 28 Sep; build start (actuals): 22 Jul → 03 Aug; target completion (actuals): 16 Sep → 28 Sep | PC-BR-Rexona (Deodorants & Fragrances, Brazil) is a Tier-3 build whose data is clean and which is now waiting only on client-side rulings. Gui Aquilante signed off both traditional and digital media o (2026-07-29; 4 open items) |
FOOD-IN-Tea-Taj-Mahal UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $17,179 | $10,798 | −$6,381 | REWORK TDP data updates in flight; discrepancies mostly resolved but the updated data still to be made available internally before modelling can co — cortex build end: 13 Aug → 08 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 13 Aug → 08 Sep | FOOD-IN-Taj Mahal (Foods, India, Tea - a Tier 3 build) is In Build with design (dated 03-Jun) and data sign-off both Signed Off, EDA & ADS prep In Progress and MMM In Progress since 14-Jul. NEWEST (22 (2026-07-22; 6 open items) |
HC-IN-Dishwash-Vim UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $16,893 | $10,772 | −$6,121 | REWORK INDIA ONE-WEEK EXTENSION anticipated across the whole book on the e-comm recalculation (all 14 cells; Surf and Lux prioritised; targeted com — cortex build end: 13 Aug → 07 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 13 Aug → 07 Sep | AS OF 14-JUL THE DOMINANT ISSUE IS SCHEDULE, AND IT IS NOW CUSTOMER-FACING. Anand Wilson's 14-Jul 'Modelling Timelines & Status' note to Bincymon George / Veronica Casabonne / Amita Mulay (cc Sunando (2026-07-14; 8 open items) |
PC-ID-Deodorants-Fragrances-Rexona Rapid ROI TikTok Funded Cells · In Build | $12,400 | $6,526 | −$5,874 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Jul → 22 Jul; cortex build end: 07 Sep → 16 Sep; build start (actuals): 13 Jul → 22 Jul; target completion (actuals): 07 Sep → 16 Sep | PC-ID-Rexona (Personal Care, Indonesia, Deodorants & Fragrances - build funded by TikTok) is In Preparation with design Signed Off (12-Jun design call MOM, stamped Signed Off 26-Jun): media models at (2026-07-16; 4 open items) |
FOOD-IN-Tea-Red-Label UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $15,837 | $10,211 | −$5,626 | REWORK TDP data updates in flight; discrepancies mostly resolved but the updated data still to be made available internally before modelling can co — cortex build end: 18 Aug → 14 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 18 Aug → 14 Sep | FOOD-IN-Red Label (Foods, India, Tea - a Tier 3 build) is In Build with design (dated 03-Jun) and data sign-off both Signed Off, EDA & ADS prep In Progress and MMM In Progress since 14-Jul. NEWEST (22 (2026-07-22; 6 open items) |
PC-IN-Skin-Cleansing-Dove UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $16,616 | $11,233 | −$5,383 | REWORK RMS THREAD FULLY CLOSED (Bhuvnesh Balki on semantic-view equivalence; Ponds Face Care and Lakme Face Care reconciled with Dan Adamson's 'Cle — cortex build end: 17 Aug → 09 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 17 Aug → 09 Sep | IN-Dove Skin Cleansing (Personal Care, India, Skin Cleansing - the skin-cleansing / personal-wash Dove, NOT Dove Hair) is In Build with design and data Signed Off (design dated 03-Jun), EDA & ADS prep (2026-07-22; 7 open items) |
PC-IN-Skin-Care-Pond's UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $15,837 | $10,747 | −$5,090 | REWORK INDIA ONE-WEEK EXTENSION anticipated across the book on the e-comm recalculation. For Pond's: modelling active; IPL media data received and — cortex build end: 26 Aug → 22 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 26 Aug → 22 Sep | IN-Pond's (Personal Care, India, Skin Care) is In Build with design and data Signed Off (design 16-Apr, data 21-May), EDA & ADS prep In Progress and MMM In Progress since 09-Jul. It is one of the two (2026-07-30; 10 open items) |
BW-IN-Skin-Care-Vaseline UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $12,994 | $8,139 | −$4,855 | REWORK INDIA ONE-WEEK EXTENSION anticipated across the whole book on the e-comm recalculation (all 14 cells; Surf and Lux prioritised; targeted com — cortex build end: 26 Aug → 29 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 26 Aug → 29 Sep | AS OF 14-JUL THE SCHEDULE STORY IS NOW CUSTOMER-FACING. Anand Wilson's 14-Jul 'Modelling Timelines & Status' note to Bincymon George / Veronica Casabonne / Amita Mulay re-plans all 14 India brands: VA (2026-07-30; 8 open items) |
BW-IN-Face-Care-Lakme UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $14,781 | $10,183 | −$4,599 | REWORK CUSTOMER-FACING DATE SLIP: Anand Wilson sends the revised India timeline tracker to Bincymon George / Veronica Casabonne / Amita Mulay (cc S — cortex build end: 31 Aug → 28 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 31 Aug → 28 Sep | AS OF 14-JUL THE SLIP IS CUSTOMER-FACING AND LAKME IS NOW THE LATEST-FINISHING CELL OF THE ENTIRE INDIA BOOK. Anand Wilson's 14-Jul 'Modelling Timelines & Status' mail to Bincymon George / Veronica Ca (2026-07-30; 9 open items) |
BW-ID-Skin-Care-Pond's Rapid ROI TikTok Funded Cells · In Build | $12,400 | $7,832 | −$4,568 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Jul → 20 Jul; cortex build end: 07 Sep → 14 Sep; build start (actuals): 13 Jul → 27 Jul; target completion (actuals): 07 Sep → 21 Sep | BW-ID-Pond's (Beauty & Wellbeing, Indonesia, Skin Care - build funded by TikTok) is In Preparation with design Done (17-Jun) and every feed in except organic_influencer. The 17-Jun design-discussion c (2026-07-15; 3 open items) |
FOOD-IN-Health-Food-Drinks-Horlicks UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $14,981 | $10,430 | −$4,551 | REWORK RE-RUN DONE - status reply (Rakshita Sharma): ST and LT model re-run complete with the latest off-platform data; mROI and Optimization start — cortex build end: 24 Aug → 17 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 24 Aug → 17 Sep | IN-Horlicks (Foods, India, Health Food Drinks) is In Build, one of the 14-brand India Rapid ROI wave and among its later-finishing cells. NEWEST (17-22 JUL): THE E-COMM BLOCKER IS CLOSED. Horlicks was (2026-08-06; 9 open items) |
HC-IN-Fabric-Enhancers-Comfort UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $15,837 | $11,695 | −$4,142 | REWORK OPEN COMMERCIAL RISK: MathCo pushed back on Unilever's revised e-comm BMI column-to-spend-ratio allocation - adopting it now would force rew — cortex build end: 17 Aug → 03 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 17 Aug → 03 Sep | AS OF 14-JUL THE DOMINANT ISSUE IS SCHEDULE, AND IT IS NOW CUSTOMER-FACING. Anand Wilson's 14-Jul 'Modelling Timelines & Status' note to Bincymon George / Veronica Casabonne / Amita Mulay (cc Sunando (2026-07-14; 9 open items) |
HC-IN-Fabric-Cleaning-Surf UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $14,276 | $10,268 | −$4,007 | REWORK E-COMM SIGNED OFF ON BOTH COMPONENTS: Amita Mulay relayed Kedar's go-ahead on Lux AND Surf, telling the team to process the data as per the — cortex build start: 01 Jun → 08 Jun; cortex build end: 10 Aug → 26 Aug; target completion (actuals): 10 Aug → 26 Aug | IN-Surf (Home Care, India, Fabric Cleaning - Surf Excel) is In Build and, with Lux, the furthest-forward cell of the 14-brand India Rapid ROI wave. NEWEST (21-JUL, BOOK-LEVEL): the India e-commerce bl (2026-07-21; 6 open items) |
BW-IN-Skin-Cleansing-Lux UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $14,276 | $10,452 | −$3,824 | REWORK E-COMM SIGNED OFF FOR LUX: Amita Mulay relayed Kedar's go-ahead on the recalculated summary covering LUX AND SURF ONLY, telling the team to — cortex build start: 01 Jun → 08 Jun; cortex build end: 10 Aug → 25 Aug; target completion (actuals): 10 Aug → 25 Aug | IN-Lux (Beauty & Wellbeing, India, Skin Cleansing) is In Build and is now the cleanest data position in the 14-brand India Rapid ROI wave. NEWEST (17-22 JUL): the competitor-TV question is settled and (2026-07-22; 6 open items) |
BW-IN-Hair-Care-Dove UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $13,514 | $9,743 | −$3,771 | REWORK FUTURE-FORMAT TDP DECISION NARROWED TO TWO OPTIONS FOR AMITA MULAY: with no single database holding Masks and Serum together, MathCo (Anand — cortex build end: 31 Aug → 24 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 31 Aug → 24 Sep | NEWEST (23-JUL): the Masks + Serum 'FUTURE FORMAT' combined-TDP blocker is now a two-option decision resting with Amita Mulay. With no single database holding Masks and Serum together, MathCo (Anand W (2026-07-30; 12 open items) |
PC-IN-Skin-Cleansing-Pears UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $15,593 | $11,939 | −$3,655 | REWORK PEARS MODEL PROGRESS: ST model COMPLETE; LT models NOW RUNNING for BOTH Pears segments with the NEW TDP and IPL spends folded in. Same day t — cortex build end: 18 Aug → 02 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Oct → 01 Nov; target completion (actuals): 18 Aug → 02 Sep | PC-IN-Pears (Personal Care, India, Skin Cleansing, a Tier 3 build) is In Build and its last open data gate has closed. NEWEST (22-JUL): the Pears e-commerce validation is FULLY CLOSED and with it the (2026-08-06; 8 open items) |
PC-IN-Oral-Care-Close-Up UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - India · In Build | $16,088 | $12,455 | −$3,633 | REWORK INDIA ONE-WEEK EXTENSION anticipated across the whole book on the e-comm recalculation (all 14 cells; Surf and Lux prioritised; targeted com — cortex build end: 17 Aug → 31 Aug; target completion (actuals): 17 Aug → 31 Aug | AS OF 14-JUL THE DOMINANT ISSUE IS SCHEDULE, AND IT HAS NOW REACHED THE CUSTOMER. Anand Wilson issued a revised 14-brand India timeline table to Bincy George / Veronica Casabonne / Amita Mulay (cc Sun (2026-07-14; 7 open items) |
PC-GB-Deodorants-Fragrances-Sure Always on MMM Build · In Build | $3,368 | $0 | −$3,368 | START SLIP cortex build start: 27 Jul → 04 Aug; cortex build end: 21 Sep → 29 Sep; build start (actuals): 27 Jul → 04 Aug; target completion (actuals): 21 Sep → 29 Sep | PC-GB-Sure (Deodorants & Fragrances, UK, Wave 2) is fully across the Preparation gate: media signed off (traditional + retail) and the outstanding Sure 2026 missing-spend problem resolved by capping t (2026-07-27; 3 open items) |
PC-ID-Oral-Care-Close-Up Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | $0 | $3,368 | +$3,368 | START SLIP cortex build start: 27 Aug → 27 Jul; cortex build end: 22 Oct → 21 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Dec → 01 Nov; build start (actuals): 27 Aug → 27 Jul; target completion (actuals): 22 Oct → 21 Sep | PC-ID-Close-Up (Oral Care, Indonesia — Wave-2) is In Preparation, design Signed Off (10-Jun), still gated on full data sign-off before build. The sales side has now cleared at the master level: on 18- (2026-06-18; 5 open items) |
BW-ID-Skin-Care-Vaseline Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | $0 | $2,695 | +$2,695 | START SLIP cortex build start: 27 Aug → 28 Jul; cortex build end: 22 Oct → 22 Sep; cortex support start: 01 Dec → 01 Nov; build start (actuals): 27 Aug → 28 Jul; target completion (actuals): 22 Oct → 22 Sep | BW-ID-Vaseline (Skin Care, Indonesia, ADLS, Tier 3 Build) is In Preparation with design Done (08-Jun) and sales Validated, but blocked on media quality: digital_media and traditional_media both went t (2026-06-16; 3 open items) |
HC-GB-Surface-Care-Cif Always on MMM Build · On Hold | $2,316 | $0 | −$2,316 | START SLIP cortex build start: 27 Jul → 28 Sep; cortex build end: 21 Sep → 23 Nov; cortex support start: 01 Nov → —; build start (actuals): 27 Jul → 28 Sep; target completion (actuals): 21 Sep → 23 Nov | GB-Cif (Home Care, Surface Care — previously catalogued under Fabric Enhancers) is the earliest-stage of the three: In Preparation with design In Progress. It sat 'Awaiting Confirmation' from 29-Apr u (2026-07-08; 4 open items) |
BW-GB-Skin-Care-Dove Always on MMM Build · On Hold | $1,895 | $0 | −$1,895 | START SLIP cortex build start: 27 Jul → 28 Sep; cortex build end: 21 Sep → 23 Nov; cortex support start: 01 Nov → —; build start (actuals): 27 Jul → 28 Sep; target completion (actuals): 21 Sep → 23 Nov | BW-GB-Dove Skin Care (UK Beauty & Wellbeing, Wave 2, Tier 1 Build) is On Hold and, as of 27-Jul, held there by a sales-data discrepancy despite media and design being cleared. Design is approved (Sign (2026-07-27; 3 open items) |
HC-BR-Fabric-Cleaning-Omo UL - Global Predictive Analytics - Rapid RoI - Brazil · In Build | $20,884 | $19,724 | −$1,160 | REWORK NEW MODEL RECOMMENDED - significant Social/Programmatic spend discrepancies, no Powder- or Liquid-specific digital media for 2024 (only Mast — cortex build start: 08 Jun → 10 Jun; cortex build end: 03 Aug → 05 Aug; build start (actuals): 10 Jun → 03 Aug; target completion (actuals): 05 Aug → 28 Sep | HC-BR-Omo (Fabric Cleaning, Brazil) closed out both of its running tracks' open questions this week. Presentation: the readout-1 deck (first draft 13-Jul) iterated through Sander Bosch and Sunando Das (2026-08-07; 5 open items) |
MMM Product engagement-level (no cell behind it) | — | — | +$6,100 | ENG ADJUSTMENT engagement-level manual value moved (no cell behind it) | — |
Product Optimizer Enhancements engagement-level (no cell behind it) | — | — | −$30,000 | ENG ADJUSTMENT engagement-level manual value moved (no cell behind it) | — |
RapidROI Home Care IT engagement-level (no cell behind it) | — | — | +$11,000 | ENG ADJUSTMENT engagement-level manual value moved (no cell behind it) | — |
UL - Rapid RoI - Germany engagement-level (no cell behind it) | — | — | +$14,600 | ENG ADJUSTMENT engagement-level manual value moved (no cell behind it) | — |
Aug-2026
Plan $708,951
Committed floor $613,856
−$95,095
Sep-2026
Plan $738,768
Committed floor $691,126
−$47,642
Slip-risk haircuts on not-yet-started cells
+14d where the market has open data blockers, +7d otherwise (config) · Kate intel 2026-06-25 (37 open blockers, stale — ask for a fresh copy) · pessimism lives in this view — master dates stay honest
| Cell | Blocker | Haircut | Δ Aug-2026 | Δ Sep-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
FOOD-BR-Condiments-Hellmann's Always on MMM Build · In Build | data blocker | +14d | −$9,432 | $0 |
PC-CN-Skin-Cleansing-Lux Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$9,432 | $0 |
BW-GB-Skin-Care-Simple Always on MMM Build · In Build | data blocker | +14d | −$9,432 | $0 |
PC-ID-Skin-Cleansing-Dove Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$3,368 | −$6,063 |
PC-ID-Skin-Cleansing-Lifebuoy Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$5,389 | −$4,042 |
BW-ID-Hair-Care-Sunsilk Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$5,389 | −$4,042 |
BW-PH-Hair-Care-Dove Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$5,389 | −$4,042 |
FOOD-PH-Cooking-Aids-Knorr Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$9,432 | $0 |
HC-PH-Fabric-Cleaning-Surf Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$5,389 | −$4,042 |
PC-GB-Deodorants-Fragrances-Dove-Men Always on MMM Build · In Build | data blocker | +14d | −$8,758 | −$674 |
FOOD-PH-Condiments-Lady's-Choice Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$674 | −$8,758 |
BW-PH-Skin-Care-Vaseline Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$674 | −$8,758 |
BW-ID-Hair-Care-Clear Rapid ROI TikTok Funded Cells · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$9,137 | $0 |
PC-PH-Deodorants-Fragrances-Rexona Rapid ROI TikTok Funded Cells · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | −$8,484 | −$653 |
PC-MX-Deodorants-Fragrances-Axe Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | no known blocker | +7d | −$4,716 | $0 |
HC-CN-Fabric-Cleaning-Omo Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | $0 | −$2,021 |
BW-GB-Skin-Care-Vaseline Always on MMM Build · In Preparation | data blocker | +14d | $0 | −$2,021 |
HC-GB-Surface-Care-Cif Always on MMM Build · On Hold | data blocker | +14d | $0 | −$1,389 |
BW-GB-Skin-Care-Dove Always on MMM Build · On Hold | data blocker | +14d | $0 | −$1,137 |
The timing story. Recognition ran $350,709 ahead of delivery in Mar–May 2026 (the validated 2026-07-03 analysis put this at $398,455 at FY26 rates — the live figure moves as ACTUALS dates are maintained). With June closed, the full locked window (Mar–Jun) totals $377,917. The advance unwinds through delivery catch-up, not pricing — delivery outruns recognition from July. FY guardrail: the Mar-26 slice sits in closed FY26 and can never net against FY27. Coverage: 16 cells ($0) have no ACTUALS dates on Cells and are assumed as planned (zero displacement by construction).
Recognition basis vs delivery-timed, by month
CORTEX plan = master Cell Forecast bands · delivery-timed = same pro-rata formulas driven by Cells ACTUALS dates · USD, FY-aware rates
| Month | CORTEX plan | Delivery-timed | Δ (delivery − plan) | Cumulative Δ | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-2026 | $203,645 | $47,081 | −$156,564 | −$156,564 | locked |
| Apr-2026 | $252,428 | $75,949 | −$176,478 | −$333,042 | locked |
| May-2026 | $112,618 | $94,951 | −$17,666 | −$350,709 | locked |
| Jun-2026 | $234,290 | $207,081 | −$27,209 | −$377,917 | locked |
| Jul-2026 | $250,557 | $344,012 | +$93,455 | −$284,462 | open |
| Aug-2026 | $521,351 | $721,048 | +$199,697 | −$84,766 | open |
| Sep-2026 | $551,168 | $721,236 | +$170,068 | +$85,303 | open |
| Oct-2026 | $483,565 | $383,983 | −$99,582 | −$14,279 | open |
| Nov-2026 | $579,480 | $575,888 | −$3,592 | −$17,871 | open |
| Dec-2026 | $407,814 | $475,038 | +$67,223 | +$49,352 | open |
| Jan-2027 | $346,870 | $303,670 | −$43,200 | +$6,152 | open |
| Feb-2027 | $436,364 | $436,364 | $0 | +$6,152 | open |
| Mar-2027 | $320,509 | $363,709 | +$43,200 | +$49,352 | open |
| Apr-2027 | $375,779 | $332,579 | −$43,200 | +$6,152 | open |
| May-2027 | $436,364 | $436,364 | $0 | +$6,152 | open |
| Jun-2027 | $320,509 | $320,509 | $0 | +$6,152 | open |
| Jul-2027 | $248,509 | $248,509 | $0 | +$6,152 | open |
| Aug-2027 | $277,309 | $277,309 | $0 | +$6,152 | open |
| Sep-2027 | $196,582 | $202,364 | +$5,782 | +$11,934 | open |
| Oct-2027 | $127,200 | $121,418 | −$5,782 | +$6,152 | open |
| Nov-2027 | $63,600 | $57,818 | −$5,782 | +$370 | open |
| Dec-2027 | $28,909 | $28,909 | $0 | +$370 | open |
The capacity-carry story (MMM scope). Cost = held MMM headcount × $7,500/mo × 85% yardstick (planning chip, not an audited rate). Two revenue baselines, never blended: recognized (the CORTEX ledger — the finance room) and delivery-timed (recognized re-timed to when delivery happened — the customer room). Jan–Jun is the locked 2026-07-03 analysis; later months extend live from the RevIQ pull and the timing engine. FY guardrail: never net FY26 (through Mar-26) against FY27.
Cumulative capacity cost vs revenue
MMM delivery engagements only (Product / GenAI / Optimizer excluded) · carry to date: recognized-basis −$1,055,319 · delivery-basis −$1,168,718
| Month | MMM HC | Cost @85% | Recognized | Delivery-timed | Util (rec) | Util (del) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-2026 | 19 | $121,125 | $76,899 | $76,899 | 64% | 64% | locked (2026-07-03 analysis) |
| Feb-2026 | 49 | $312,375 | $40,947 | $40,947 | 13% | 13% | locked (2026-07-03 analysis) |
| Mar-2026 | 33 | $210,375 | $209,183 | $32,387 | 99% | 15% | locked (2026-07-03 analysis) |
| Apr-2026 | 41 | $261,375 | $243,239 | $61,908 | 93% | 24% | locked (2026-07-03 analysis) |
| May-2026 | 62 | $395,250 | $112,617 | $72,288 | 28% | 18% | locked (2026-07-03 analysis) |
| Jun-2026 | 75 | $478,125 | $224,663 | $216,569 | 47% | 45% | locked (2026-07-03 analysis) |
| Jul-2026 | 77 | $490,875 | $276,157 | $369,612 | 56% | 75% | live |
| Aug-2026 | 77 | $490,875 | $521,351 | $721,048 | 106% | 147% | live — HC carried — month in progress |
| Total | $2,760,375 | $1,705,056 | $1,591,657 | 62% | 58% |
Draft for the weekly Vedant note
vs 20260731 - Unilever.xlsx · copy-paste ready
Since the 31 Jul snapshot, the Aug-2026 forecast has moved −$22,232 and Sep-2026 $0. Cell-level movers: PC-ID-Skin-Cleansing-Lifebuoy −$7,411 in Aug-2026 (start slip); BW-ID-Hair-Care-Sunsilk −$5,389 in Aug-2026 (start slip); BW-PH-Hair-Care-Dove −$4,716 in Aug-2026 (start slip); HC-PH-Fabric-Cleaning-Surf −$4,716 in Aug-2026 (start slip). Aug-2026 stands at $708,951 against a 1st-of-month baseline of $708,951 (leakage-to-date $0); recognized to date $708,951. The committed floor for Aug-2026 is $613,856 and for Sep-2026 $691,126 (slip-risk haircuts on not-yet-started cells; plan figures remain the stretch).
| Engagement | Month | 2026-07-31 | Today | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Always on MMM Build | Aug-2026 | $286,274 | $264,042 | −$22,232 |
| Cell | Month | Δ | Cause |
|---|---|---|---|
PC-ID-Skin-Cleansing-Lifebuoy Always on MMM Build | Aug-2026 | −$7,411 | START SLIP cortex build start: 13 Aug → 24 Aug; cortex build end: 08 Oct → 19 Oct |
BW-ID-Hair-Care-Sunsilk Always on MMM Build | Aug-2026 | −$5,389 | START SLIP cortex build start: 16 Aug → 24 Aug; cortex build end: 11 Oct → 19 Oct |
BW-PH-Hair-Care-Dove Always on MMM Build | Aug-2026 | −$4,716 | START SLIP cortex build start: 17 Aug → 24 Aug; cortex build end: 12 Oct → 19 Oct |
HC-PH-Fabric-Cleaning-Surf Always on MMM Build | Aug-2026 | −$4,716 | START SLIP cortex build start: 17 Aug → 24 Aug; cortex build end: 12 Oct → 19 Oct |